Welcome back Nadal

Reports are out now that Rafael Nadal will be back practicing in the coming week, and hopes to be back in full capacity on tour by August, specifically the hard-court tournament in Montreal starting Aug. 10.

I’m sure sports gamblers are all chomping at the bit for a big name they recognize to return to the sport, but before you just on the Nadal bandwagon again, my advice here is to tread slowly, as I’m sure Nadal himself will be doing. He’s coming back from a significant knee injury, one that’s kept him out of action since May, and even after a few weeks of practice, I wouldn’t pin him as a favorite worth taking a chance on.

Even on hard court, and even in the early rounds, he’s going to pull some nice tennis betting money lines as a favorite, ones that will look like easy money to those picking out matches to bet on in groups. Nadal is still ranked #2 in the world, and it’s not like he’s forgotten how to play the game. So for these matches, if his team of trainers is confident in his ability to return, you probably should be, too. A low-rated player facing a Nadal at 80% is still going to get crushed. So a money line that requires you to put up even 200 to win 100 is worth taking a chance on. As the rounds get deeper and the competition gets stiffer, though, fatigue on his legs will be something to watch, especially during the first tournament. While he might pass through the first two or three rounds in straight sets, it’s unlikely to continue at that pace through to the semi-finals. It’s at this stage that the odds makers might start throwing out even-money bets, and at that risk/return, you’re better off putting up a little more money on someone like Federer, where the return is lower, but it’s a much safer bet since you know what you’re getting and barring a major fluke, are going to win some money.

Nadal brings a lot of heart and emotion to the game, and his fire will be burning from the moment he first steps foot onto that court in Montreal, so it’ll be easy to ride that wave, especially with the hype from the media outlets, but I implore you to take yourself out of that loop and watch how he moves. Try to find some video of his practices and see how he reacts and recovers, don’t worry about how he’s hitting or serving.

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College Football – This ain’t the pros

College football betting is a peculiar beast when it comes to laying down a bet, and you sometimes have to throw caution, research and everything else to the win when you sit down to make your selections each week. Because when Saturday morning rolls around, most of your prep work can go right out the window.

Let’s start with the point spread. Unlike the NFL, where it’s been whittled down to the last point, college football is much more wide open, especially if you’re looking at a perceived blowout. Spreads of 45-0 are not all that uncommon. As the odds makers know, anything can happen.

I’m usually one to preach statistics and probability, and research over any “gut” feeling when it comes to making a bet, but in the case of college football, the excitement and young, raw emotion of the event trumps all that in a heartbeat.

Don’t worry, I am going somewhere with this. My point is that money lines in college football will look like the ocean to a fisherman, but you have to hold yourself back from overreaching as a gambler. Even a 50-line bet of Ohio State vs. your high school JV team isn’t a sure thing. Be careful how much you plop down on these major spread games, they can bite you hard.

The main reason for the warning is because these are usually “nothing” games to begin with, meaning they’re early in the season (so there’s no conference title on the line, per se), and once a team runs up the score enough, you know they’re going to pull all their starters on both sides of the ball. That still might be more than enough to coast to a victory, but if you were counting on a 7 touchdown spread, you might be in for a nail-bitter after all. So take the lines with a grain of salt.

Don’t get me wrong, the college football lines are just as professionally handled in NCAA as they are in the NFL, but you get the feeling that it’s a little more Wild West in college and a little more Wall Street in the NFL when you compare the two.

That’s not to say you shouldn’t take these bets, but 1) don’t bet the farm on it unless you’re literally about to lose your chicken farm, and 2) be aware of things like home field, who’s injured, just to have it as reference. Don’t make your bet solely on these as I mentioned earlier, but a little change one way or another could sway you off that 59-point line.

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Speculating on the English Premier League in the 2010 Season

We are a short time removed from the start of the 2010 Premiership in England, where football is the talk of all in the UK. Love the game of European Football and DVR every televised game, including the Champion’s League and the FA Cup matches. I additionally enjoy speculating on the league winners. While I do enjoy betting long shots, I do not enjoy throwing my money away. As a result, I have my own way of doing things when speculating on UK Football Futures.

Top Tier Teams

The first thing I like to do when talking English Football futures is develop a list of top tier contenders. These are teams that can talk about raising the league trophy as we speak. In this list, I have to include the defending champions Manchester United. Even though they lost their star and team captain, Ronaldo by way of a record transfer to Real Madrid, in Sir Alex I still believe. I additionally include Liverpool in the elite Premiership sides, as they looked to be the strongest European side in the UEFA Champion’s League before dropping out in the semi-finals. I additionally include Chelsea in this group, as they have bought and paid for a dynasty a few times over and though they have fallen short of expectations considering the talent amassed on the pitch; they may someday live up to the billing.

Second Tier Clubs

Next, I list the teams who I believe are able to climb the ladder of the league table, but are not quite ready to have a compelling conversation about winning the league just yet. Manchester City and Arsenal come to mind in this grouping.

The rest of the sides will be known as “the field,” though I have disqualified many online soccer betting teams from consideration, as I do not feel they have a prayer. These teams are Burnley, Birmingham, Hull City, and Portsmouth. Add to this list Stoke City and the Bolton Wanderers,

Out of the 20-team league, this leaves nine teams as my version of “the field.” I give the field a 5% shot at winning the title – with the majority of the 5% front end loaded to two squads – Everton and the Spurs. We find value in the Spurs and Everton sides. Of the remaining seven English sides – the top tier teams each get a 20 to 25% shot at the league crown – leaving 20% to spread throughout the between City and Arsenal. Manchester City shows slight value here and has worked to strengthen their side during the summer transfer window. As a result, I would be comfortable speculating on futures for an outright league championship win on Manchester City, the Spurs and Everton. In my heart, however, I know United shall stand at the top of the table come league’s end.

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Soccer Betting Guide

The most widely bet on sport in the world is soccer and you’re not going to find any other sport that has more bets laid throughout the course of a year. Soccer is one of the only sports that is played across the world and there are leagues in every single continent. Most people that bet on soccer will stick to the leagues that they know best, but you don’t necessarily need to do this and you can wager on multiple leagues if you would like.

There are a lot of popular soccer leagues around the world that receive a lot of media attention and air time on television. There are lots of websites that cater to each league as well which is a handicappers dream because you’ll be able to find up to the minute news on the leagues you wager on. Some of the popular leagues and events that the majority of handicappers wager on include the following.

* Premiere League
* UEFA Championship
* Serie A
* La Liga
* Major League Soccer

The above is only a small list of the leagues and events that you’ll be able to wager on during the soccer betting season. Soccer is one of the most active sports in the world and you’ll never have a day during the season where you won’t be able to wager. It will take time obviously to learn about each of the teams in each of the leagues and you definitely don’t want to rush into betting. If you don’t already have a thorough understanding of the league you’re wagering on then I would recommend waiting until you learn more about the league.

With soccer there are going to be lots of important factors to look at and I would recommend reading more about what you should look for when capping games, but here are some quick tips.

* Make sure you know about everything going on in your league. Make sure you know about the injured players, suspended players, trades and any players that may be sitting out for rest.

* Learn how teams perform against other teams because this will help you win money. In soccer certain teams will usually always beat other teams so you need to find the teams that have been doing great against other teams in the league. You can do this by looking at past heads-to-heads match-up reports.

* Always make sure you find out what the opening line is on any game you’re betting. Compare the opening line to the current line that you’re being offered to see if it’s a good bet. If the line has gone in either direction sharply then there might be something you don’t know about the game and you might want to lay off.

* Try not to bet on every league and stick with the most popular leagues that the public bet on. I would only recommend betting on the smaller leagues if you live in the area and are up to date with all of the teams in the league. If you’re not then I would just worry about learning everything about the main leagues such as the premiership or MLS depending on where you live and what leagues you’re more interested in.

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