Reports are out now that Rafael Nadal will be back practicing in the coming week, and hopes to be back in full capacity on tour by August, specifically the hard-court tournament in Montreal starting Aug. 10.
I’m sure sports gamblers are all chomping at the bit for a big name they recognize to return to the sport, but before you just on the Nadal bandwagon again, my advice here is to tread slowly, as I’m sure Nadal himself will be doing. He’s coming back from a significant knee injury, one that’s kept him out of action since May, and even after a few weeks of practice, I wouldn’t pin him as a favorite worth taking a chance on.
Even on hard court, and even in the early rounds, he’s going to pull some nice tennis betting money lines as a favorite, ones that will look like easy money to those picking out matches to bet on in groups. Nadal is still ranked #2 in the world, and it’s not like he’s forgotten how to play the game. So for these matches, if his team of trainers is confident in his ability to return, you probably should be, too. A low-rated player facing a Nadal at 80% is still going to get crushed. So a money line that requires you to put up even 200 to win 100 is worth taking a chance on. As the rounds get deeper and the competition gets stiffer, though, fatigue on his legs will be something to watch, especially during the first tournament. While he might pass through the first two or three rounds in straight sets, it’s unlikely to continue at that pace through to the semi-finals. It’s at this stage that the odds makers might start throwing out even-money bets, and at that risk/return, you’re better off putting up a little more money on someone like Federer, where the return is lower, but it’s a much safer bet since you know what you’re getting and barring a major fluke, are going to win some money.
Nadal brings a lot of heart and emotion to the game, and his fire will be burning from the moment he first steps foot onto that court in Montreal, so it’ll be easy to ride that wave, especially with the hype from the media outlets, but I implore you to take yourself out of that loop and watch how he moves. Try to find some video of his practices and see how he reacts and recovers, don’t worry about how he’s hitting or serving.